The Future of Digital Media
12/25/07 08:03 PM Filed in: Technology
Since I want to be able
to claim credit for this before it happens, I decided
to blog about where I think the future of Digital
Media lies.
The current fight is between whether to produce solely HD DVDs or Blu-Ray Discs, though that fight is almost over seeing as how the HD DVD format has swept the market leaving Blu-Ray lagging behind and being used mostly by Sony on videos and games.
For years we've been trying to find the an unscratchable disk. We have yet to find one that is practical and cheap enough to mass produce. So the nagging question remains: What will the next Digital Media format be?
In large part, the Adult Film Industry (AFI) has always lead the way in choosing the next format which the public will use. Why? Because the AFI has enough billions per year to throw around on such things (yes, more than Hollywood). The AFI was one of the first to catch on to the VHS, it was the one of the first to realize the possibilities of the internet, it was the first to test out the DVD technology, it's paving the way for High Definition Technology, and it will pave the way for the next medium. The AFI has announced that it will accept the HD DVD as it's format of choice; first of all, the HD DVD is significantly cheaper to produce. Second of all, Blu-Ray discs are almost entirely produced by Sony, who has long refused to produce Pornographic films (go Sony!), so the AFI is almost forced to use the HD DVD. Blu-Ray players have been much more expensive than HD DVD players in the past, but they are coming down to a more competitive price.
With the release of the AppleTV, my guess is the next medium for our Digital Media is going to be small Flash Media, similar to the SDRAM chips for your Digital Camera. Currently those sell for about $10 a gig, so I'm guessing once they come down to around $5 for four gigs, the AFI will start looking at them (and so will the rest of the market.) Think how simple it will be! You'll have two ways to purchase a movie. You'll have a massive External Hard Drive which will be attached to your Entertainment System; You'll purchase the movie from somewhere in a small case, something like a GameCube video game comes in, I suppose, and bring it home. You'll open it to find the small Flash chip inside. No discs, so no worries of scratching! Plug the chip into the front of your AppleTV (or whatever the competition is by then). You'll need leave it plugged in for only a few minutes while it automatically copies the movie onto your External Hard Drive (in a High Definition format, of course). Once the video file is on your External Hard Drive, you can pull out the Flash chip, put it back in the case, and place it on a shelf to forget about. The movie is now on your External Hard Drive, easy for you to access by simply scrolling through all the movies on the drive, much like you would scroll through things you saved on DirectTV.
What if we don't want to go to the store to purchase that crazy Flash chip? Easy! It just so happens your TV will be hooked up to your wireless internet (does that make sense ... hooked up to wireless?) You'll be able to easily peruse the iTunes Music/Movie Store (or any digital media store that's available at that time) directly from your TV, select the movie you want to buy, iTunes will automatically charge your credit card and begin downloading the movie to your External Hard Drive immediately. And look, you didn't even have to go anywhere! Yet another excuse for American obesity.
The technology is almost there with Apple's AppleTV. It just needs to be pushed a little bit more, and the price of Flash media needs to come down. My guess is by the time my generation graduates from college and is beginning to purchase our own Home Entertainment Systems, we'll be making a choice for this medium! And, of course, by that time, there will be many more options for something like this; Microsoft will have their own soon enough.
UPDATE 1/7/2008:
Warner Bros. has announced that it will be adopting the Blu-Ray Disc format over HD DVD. Sony and Warner Bros. are two huge producers, and Hollywood has declared that it wishes to also complete the transition early into 2008. This makes the HD DVD essentially worthless. While it is good to have finally made a decision (so retailers can finally stock only one format), I'm not very pleased with the decision, though it seems final as 70% of the production market is now producing solely Blu-Ray (Disney, Fox, Sony, Warner Bros. and New Line Cinema), leaving Toshiba as just about the only company in support of HD DVD.
On that note, this is good news for Apple, since they have been planning to include full support for Blu-Ray (and only marginal support for HD DVD) in the upcoming MacBook Pros and Final Cut HD. Microsoft has been in support of the HD DVD format, however they will most likely change soon enough.
UPDATE 1/9/2008:
Paramount Pictures has abandon the HD DVD and has said it will be returning to producing the Blu-Ray Disc, leaving Universal as the only large company still in support of the HD DVD and over 75% of the market turning to Blu-Ray.
For a fancy graph, check out this article here.
UPDATE 2/15/2008:
After Best Buy and Netflix declared on the 12th that they would be carrying Blu-Ray exclusively, rental Wal-Mart announced today that it also will be stocking only Blu-Ray discs! Following these announcements, it is rumored that Toshiba will withdraw support of the HD-DVD and move solely to Blu-Ray, joining the rest of the pack.
The fight is almost over!
UPDATE 2/19/2008:
Game over! Toshiba has said it will discontinue use of the HD-DVD disc format, switching to Blu-Ray. The battle is over ...
The current fight is between whether to produce solely HD DVDs or Blu-Ray Discs, though that fight is almost over seeing as how the HD DVD format has swept the market leaving Blu-Ray lagging behind and being used mostly by Sony on videos and games.
For years we've been trying to find the an unscratchable disk. We have yet to find one that is practical and cheap enough to mass produce. So the nagging question remains: What will the next Digital Media format be?
In large part, the Adult Film Industry (AFI) has always lead the way in choosing the next format which the public will use. Why? Because the AFI has enough billions per year to throw around on such things (yes, more than Hollywood). The AFI was one of the first to catch on to the VHS, it was the one of the first to realize the possibilities of the internet, it was the first to test out the DVD technology, it's paving the way for High Definition Technology, and it will pave the way for the next medium. The AFI has announced that it will accept the HD DVD as it's format of choice; first of all, the HD DVD is significantly cheaper to produce. Second of all, Blu-Ray discs are almost entirely produced by Sony, who has long refused to produce Pornographic films (go Sony!), so the AFI is almost forced to use the HD DVD. Blu-Ray players have been much more expensive than HD DVD players in the past, but they are coming down to a more competitive price.
With the release of the AppleTV, my guess is the next medium for our Digital Media is going to be small Flash Media, similar to the SDRAM chips for your Digital Camera. Currently those sell for about $10 a gig, so I'm guessing once they come down to around $5 for four gigs, the AFI will start looking at them (and so will the rest of the market.) Think how simple it will be! You'll have two ways to purchase a movie. You'll have a massive External Hard Drive which will be attached to your Entertainment System; You'll purchase the movie from somewhere in a small case, something like a GameCube video game comes in, I suppose, and bring it home. You'll open it to find the small Flash chip inside. No discs, so no worries of scratching! Plug the chip into the front of your AppleTV (or whatever the competition is by then). You'll need leave it plugged in for only a few minutes while it automatically copies the movie onto your External Hard Drive (in a High Definition format, of course). Once the video file is on your External Hard Drive, you can pull out the Flash chip, put it back in the case, and place it on a shelf to forget about. The movie is now on your External Hard Drive, easy for you to access by simply scrolling through all the movies on the drive, much like you would scroll through things you saved on DirectTV.
What if we don't want to go to the store to purchase that crazy Flash chip? Easy! It just so happens your TV will be hooked up to your wireless internet (does that make sense ... hooked up to wireless?) You'll be able to easily peruse the iTunes Music/Movie Store (or any digital media store that's available at that time) directly from your TV, select the movie you want to buy, iTunes will automatically charge your credit card and begin downloading the movie to your External Hard Drive immediately. And look, you didn't even have to go anywhere! Yet another excuse for American obesity.
The technology is almost there with Apple's AppleTV. It just needs to be pushed a little bit more, and the price of Flash media needs to come down. My guess is by the time my generation graduates from college and is beginning to purchase our own Home Entertainment Systems, we'll be making a choice for this medium! And, of course, by that time, there will be many more options for something like this; Microsoft will have their own soon enough.
UPDATE 1/7/2008:
Warner Bros. has announced that it will be adopting the Blu-Ray Disc format over HD DVD. Sony and Warner Bros. are two huge producers, and Hollywood has declared that it wishes to also complete the transition early into 2008. This makes the HD DVD essentially worthless. While it is good to have finally made a decision (so retailers can finally stock only one format), I'm not very pleased with the decision, though it seems final as 70% of the production market is now producing solely Blu-Ray (Disney, Fox, Sony, Warner Bros. and New Line Cinema), leaving Toshiba as just about the only company in support of HD DVD.
On that note, this is good news for Apple, since they have been planning to include full support for Blu-Ray (and only marginal support for HD DVD) in the upcoming MacBook Pros and Final Cut HD. Microsoft has been in support of the HD DVD format, however they will most likely change soon enough.
UPDATE 1/9/2008:
Paramount Pictures has abandon the HD DVD and has said it will be returning to producing the Blu-Ray Disc, leaving Universal as the only large company still in support of the HD DVD and over 75% of the market turning to Blu-Ray.
For a fancy graph, check out this article here.
UPDATE 2/15/2008:
After Best Buy and Netflix declared on the 12th that they would be carrying Blu-Ray exclusively, rental Wal-Mart announced today that it also will be stocking only Blu-Ray discs! Following these announcements, it is rumored that Toshiba will withdraw support of the HD-DVD and move solely to Blu-Ray, joining the rest of the pack.
The fight is almost over!
UPDATE 2/19/2008:
Game over! Toshiba has said it will discontinue use of the HD-DVD disc format, switching to Blu-Ray. The battle is over ...